Debate Club Thread #2: China & Taiwan

[JordanL]

This is the first debate thread for the Politics Forum Debate Club ( http://www.ps3forums.com/showthread.php?t=62515 ). The subject of this debate is China and Taiwan.

Overview

The Chinese government has been the center of much contraversy in the last decade, and their political relations with the US have historically been strained due to their Communist ideals and their tendency to reject certain rights the American government considers unalienable.

Debate

The debate centers mostly around the issue of cost vs. risk vs. reward vs. obligation. China and Taiwan represent two differing ideologies, and who, and in what ways, the US government supports is seen as a delicate issue at best.

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[JordanL]

My opinion:

When you turn on the news do you hear much about China? Do yeah ever turn over a plastic American flag and see a "made in China" sticker? Have you thought about what this means? Here's a start (http://thedignifiedrant.blogspot.com/2005/03/ready-set-go.html):

The proposed anti-secession law, read out for the first time before the ceremonial National People's Congress, does not specify what actions might invite a Chinese attack.

"If possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted, the state shall employ nonpeaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity," Wang Zhaoguo, deputy chairman of the congress' Standing Committee, told the nearly 3,000 members gathered in the Great Hall of the People.

Beijing claims Taiwan, which split from China since 1949, as part of its territory. The communist mainland repeatedly has threatened to invade if Taiwan tries to make its independence permanent, and the new law does not impose any new conditions or make new threats. But it lays out for the first time legal requirements for military action.

China is huge and they have a lot of spending power now. Not as much as the US, (and much of their spending power is dependent on the US), but its a fair amount. But what are they doing with all this money?

Recently China began (http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/12/29/news/china.html) efforts (http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?SectionID=103&ItemID=7446) to combat (http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?F=720764&C=asiapac) US superiority of the sea in the South China Sea (http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/images/sochisea.gif) and Taiwan Straight (http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/taiwan_pol92.jpg). Currently the US has a full carrier group sitting in the Taiwan straight to ensure Taiwan's safety, however, that may not be enough. Superhawk at RWNH had this to say (http://rightwingnuthouse.com/archives/2005/03/15/the-horizon-darkens/):

Our "one China" policy has allowed the US to walk a tightrope between satisfying our obligations to protect Taipei while not riling Beijing and forcing their hand over the indpendence issue. While we oppose independence for Taiwan, American policy is to sell the tiny country defensive weapons while at the same time giving it assurances that a Chinese military move to reunite with the mainland would be met with force. For more than 30 years, this policy worked well as Beijing was to weak to stand up to the US militarily. But now China has embarked on a crash naval building program that would seem to have one purpose: To give them the capability for amphibious landings necessary to conquer the little island nation.

We cannot fight off an entire Navy with a single carrier group, (and don't even start referencing WW2 or the Battle of Midway -- that was sheer luck). Superhawk asks the question of whether such an invasion would trigger a war, and my answer is absolutely.

An agressive China, a China that will blow through a carrier group, is not a China which we can talk with. Such an act would throw the entire region into chaos and be a serious concern of both Japan and Korea. If allowed to invade Taiwan, China would become a near unstoppable force which would in all likeliness conquer the region within 15 years. Thus, it is imperative that we stop such an invasion, even, as Superhawk notes, "at the risk of war with another nuclear power". It is at this stage that Bush's Missle Defense Shield would be paying dividends.

So how far off is all of this speculation, (what some would no doubt call paranoia or fearmongering)? Well, Mr. Dunn has some guess on that:

The only question is when China will go. I think it will be on the eve of the 2008 Peking summer Olympics. China will have the security issue to cover mobilization and movement of military units. And everybody will assume China is using the attention as a coming out party to highlight their advances and their place in the sun. I think swallowing China under the nose of US and Japanese protection will be even better to demonstrate their power. Why else go on a crash building program for naval units?

I must say, that this is reminding me of Shadow of the Hegemon by Oreson Scott Card. In that book, China goaded India into starting a war with its neighbors to the east, then staged an attack from Thailand as an excuse to overrun all of South Asia from New Dheli to the South China Sea.

This could be a defining event of our time, and I'm at a loss as to what the Europeon's would do. Their two basic instincts would be in conflict. They oppose US military involvement in (nearly) anything, but it would be China that instigated such a situation. It could easily become another World War, but I doubt it. I think Russia would remain quiet on the subject, and that only regional powers, and perhaps the UK, would be adamently opposed to China. (NOTE: Austrailia is considered a regional power in this situation).

But a 2008 timeline would be interesting. The US would just be finished recovering from the war in Iraq and the troop movements and subsequent costs. I'm not sure that we would be up to such a war economically, as right about that time we would be another trillion or so in the hole for the initial personalized Social Security accounts.

Some might say that this is bunk, and that China is not technologically advanced enough to pose a real threat to US interests, but I have a feeling that that's what they want us to think. I imagine them quite comfortable with us viewing them as inferior and archaic, and I don't think that they would be using that section of their military in any conflict with the US.

This all may seem a little sudden, but keep it in mind, you may be seeing more signals about China's intentions soon. (And my site probably just got blocked by China's filters).

NOTE: Something I just realized: 2008 is the next presidential, and the Olympics are about four months before it. If that timeline were to prove correct, it could be disasterous for the Democratic party because people associate military with Republicans.

[DINAMO788]

sorry for the lack of interest. another topic is the one posted in the GCC section about a foiled school shooting.


but i dont know anything about the china/taiwan issue so i cant really comment.



so what are we debating in terms fo china and taiwan?

[JordanL]

sorry for the lack of interest. another topic is the one posted in the GCC section about a foiled school shooting.


but i dont know anything about the china/taiwan issue so i cant really comment.



so what are we debating in terms fo china and taiwan?

What you think China is going to do... what you think the rest of the world should do about it.

[Axe&Hammer]

There can only be one China,Taiwan will be attacked,and American will have to choose,Capitalism or Democracy

sounds like a Tom Clancy book ;)